MLB hitter props

Austin Riley

vs Aaron NolaProjected lineup1:10 PM ET

HR probability

13.3%

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Season HR%

2.8%

Park factor

3.3

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

0.8

Expected hits

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.8

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	0.8	0.5DraftKings	+0.3	—	60% (6/10)· 3O streak
H+R+R	1.7	1.5DraftKings	+0.2	—	60% (6/10)· 3O streak
Total Bases	1.4	—	+0.0	—	40% (4/10)· 1O streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	—	+0.0	—	10% (1/10)· 6U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

58.8%Line

2+ Hits

18.9%

3+ Hits

3.8%

4+ Hits

0.3%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

13.5%

Hard Hit%

44.8%

Exit Velo

91.7 mph

EV90

108.2 mph

Sweet Spot%

37.4%

Fly Ball%

30.7%

xSLG

0.624

ISO

0.134

34.6%

Contact%

69.9%

Bat Speed

74.2 mph

Swing Length

7.47 ft

Platoon HR%

3.2%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Aaron Nola

View Aaron Nola's report →

Avg

0.367

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Aaron Nola

View Aaron Nola's report →

HR% Allowed

6.0%

Barrel% Allowed

9.5%

Hard Hit% Allowed

41.8%

xSLG Allowed

0.547

Fly Ball% Allowed

28.9%

HR/FB

31.3%

HR/9 (est.)

2.32

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

60% (6/10)· 3O streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 0.8

Sep 5

@ PHI

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 4

@ PHI

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 2

@ WSH

OVER

Hits

+1.5

Sep 1

@ WSH

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Aug 31

vs SF

OVER

Hits

+1.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Aaron Nola's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Austin Riley's K% vs Pitch
Knuckle Curve	32.1%	45.2%	32.4%	78.4	46.2%
4-Seam Fastball	22.9%	8.7%	6.8%	92.4	26.8%
Changeup	19.9%	28%	19.7%	85.6	28.1%
Sinker	17.5%	9%	17.5%	91.8	24.2%
Cutter	6.1%	22.2%	0%	86.4	29.2%
Slider	1.5%	26.7%	0%	83.2	24.3%

Green = a plus pitch for Aaron Nola (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Austin Riley (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Austin Riley handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
Knuckle Curve	32.1%	31%	0.281	40%	0.133
4-Seam Fastball	22.9%	53.1%	0.363	50%	0.270
Changeup	19.9%	44.9%	0.285	42.4%	0.258
Sinker	17.5%	38.9%	0.487	37%	0.364
Cutter	6.1%	40%	0.517	63.2%	0.360
Slider	1.5%	57.1%	0.450	33.3%	0.282

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