MLB hitter props

Zach McKinstry

vs Gavin WilliamsProjected lineup1:40 PM ET

HR probability

9.1%

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Season HR%

1.2%

Park factor

2.8

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

Selected line

Model projection

0.8

Expected hits

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.3

Last 10 games

Average margin

-0.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	0.8	—	+0.0	—	30% (3/10)· 1U streak
H+R+R	1.7	—	+0.0	—	10% (1/10)· 1U streak
Total Bases	1.1	—	+0.0	—	0% (0/10)· 10U streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	—	+0.0	—	10% (1/10)· 5U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

60%

2+ Hits

20.5%

3+ Hits

3.6%

4+ Hits

0.4%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

2.2%

Hard Hit%

22.6%

Exit Velo

86 mph

EV90

99.6 mph

Sweet Spot%

43.5%

Fly Ball%

28.5%

xSLG

0.403

ISO

0.121

15.3%

Contact%

85.8%

Bat Speed

66 mph

Swing Length

6.51 ft

Platoon HR%

1.6%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Gavin Williams

View Gavin Williams's report →

Avg

0.083

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Gavin Williams

View Gavin Williams's report →

HR% Allowed

4.8%

Barrel% Allowed

10.9%

Hard Hit% Allowed

45.4%

xSLG Allowed

0.614

Fly Ball% Allowed

27.9%

HR/FB

31.4%

HR/9 (est.)

1.85

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

30% (3/10)· 1U streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 0.8

Sep 5

@ CLE

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 4

@ CLE

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 2

@ MIN

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Aug 31

@ MIN

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Aug 30

vs LAD

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Gavin Williams's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Zach McKinstry's K% vs Pitch
Sweeper	29.7%	41.9%	28.1%	87.9	11.8%
4-Seam Fastball	27.9%	28.6%	27.9%	98.3	12%
Curveball	22.1%	32%	23.9%	82.7	13.5%
Sinker	16.7%	16%	10%	97.7	7.5%
Cutter	3.6%	18.5%	25%	92.8	15%

Green = a plus pitch for Gavin Williams (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Zach McKinstry (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Zach McKinstry handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
Sweeper	29.7%	37.8%	0.207	42.9%	0.440
4-Seam Fastball	27.9%	40.5%	0.226	27%	0.321
Curveball	22.1%	44.2%	0.324	16.7%	0.342
Sinker	16.7%	57.1%	0.538	22.2%	0.283
Cutter	3.6%	54.5%	0.464	20.7%	0.432

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