MLB hitter props

Willi Castro

vs Kyle LeahyProjected lineup3:10 PM ET

HR probability

13.8%

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Season HR%

4.4%

Park factor

3.4

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

Selected line

Model projection

0.9

Expected hits

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.8

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	0.9	—	+0.0	—	80% (8/10)· 1O streak
H+R+R	1.8	—	+0.0	—	60% (6/10)· 2U streak
Total Bases	1.4	—	+0.0	—	30% (3/10)· 6U streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	—	+0.0	—	10% (1/10)· 4U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

62%

2+ Hits

24.2%

3+ Hits

5.7%

4+ Hits

0.6%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

9.8%

Hard Hit%

36.2%

Exit Velo

86.1 mph

EV90

105.8 mph

Sweet Spot%

34.5%

Fly Ball%

29.9%

xSLG

0.598

ISO

0.195

26.3%

Contact%

72.0%

Bat Speed

71.1 mph

Swing Length

7.18 ft

Platoon HR%

4.8%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Kyle Leahy

View Kyle Leahy's report →

Avg

0.667

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Kyle Leahy

View Kyle Leahy's report →

HR% Allowed

1.8%

Barrel% Allowed

8.9%

Hard Hit% Allowed

46.3%

xSLG Allowed

0.507

Fly Ball% Allowed

23.7%

HR/FB

11.1%

HR/9 (est.)

0.70

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

80% (8/10)· 1O streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 0.9

Aug 31

vs BAL

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Aug 30

@ ATL

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Aug 29

@ ATL

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Aug 28

@ ATL

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Aug 27

@ WSH

OVER

Hits

+0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Kyle Leahy's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Willi Castro's K% vs Pitch
4-Seam Fastball	23.3%	14.3%	9.8%	94.7	18.2%
Curveball	17.2%	25.6%	15.6%	83.4	17.7%
Slider	17.1%	26.4%	35.3%	89.5	27.1%
Changeup	16%	23.1%	19%	89	21.3%
Sweeper	14.3%	20.8%	17.3%	85	30.4%
Sinker	12.2%	14.1%	28.3%	94.6	25%

Green = a plus pitch for Kyle Leahy (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Willi Castro (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Willi Castro handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
4-Seam Fastball	23.3%	51.6%	0.464	46.4%	0.392
Curveball	17.2%	41.7%	0.215	38.7%	0.416
Slider	17.1%	46.2%	0.308	37.5%	0.317
Changeup	16%	36.8%	0.222	33.3%	0.257
Sweeper	14.3%	57.1%	0.380	37.5%	0.156
Sinker	12.2%	52%	0.201	48.5%	0.256

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