MLB hitter props

Josh Naylor

vs Gage JumpProjected lineup4:10 PM ET

HR probability

9.7%

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Season HR%

1.3%

Park factor

3.4

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

Expected hits

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.9

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.0	0.5DraftKings	+0.5	—	50% (5/10)· 1U streak
H+R+R	1.8	1.5DraftKings	+0.3	—	50% (5/10)· 1U streak
Total Bases	1.4	—	+0.0	—	30% (3/10)· 1U streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	—	+0.0	—	10% (1/10)· 3U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

66.8%Line

2+ Hits

26%

3+ Hits

6.3%

4+ Hits

1.2%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

3.7%

Hard Hit%

33.6%

Exit Velo

86.4 mph

EV90

102.9 mph

Sweet Spot%

36.9%

Fly Ball%

20.9%

xSLG

0.420

ISO

0.089

12.2%

Contact%

85.5%

Bat Speed

68 mph

Swing Length

7.45 ft

Platoon HR%

1.8%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Gage Jump

View Gage Jump's report →

Avg

0.333

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Gage Jump

View Gage Jump's report →

HR% Allowed

3.0%

Barrel% Allowed

7.7%

Hard Hit% Allowed

42.0%

xSLG Allowed

0.588

Fly Ball% Allowed

28.5%

HR/FB

16.9%

HR/9 (est.)

1.16

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 1

Sep 5

vs ATH

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 4

vs ATH

OVER

Hits

+2.5

Sep 3

vs ATH

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 2

@ BOS

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 1

@ BOS

OVER

Hits

+1.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Gage Jump's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Josh Naylor's K% vs Pitch
4-Seam Fastball	45.9%	20.9%	21.5%	96.2	8.7%
Slider	22.7%	27.7%	17.8%	87	20.7%
Curveball	11%	24.3%	21.3%	82.3	23.3%
Changeup	9%	26.8%	11.1%	87.4	13.6%
Sinker	6%	21.4%	22.2%	95.1	10.2%
Sweeper	5.3%	40%	21.9%	83.6	20.9%

Green = a plus pitch for Gage Jump (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Josh Naylor (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Josh Naylor handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
4-Seam Fastball	45.9%	48.5%	0.419	35.7%	0.362
Slider	22.7%	28.8%	0.258	34.7%	0.203
Curveball	11%	56.5%	0.203	41.2%	0.255
Changeup	9%	37.5%	0.489	34%	0.228
Sinker	6%	30%	0.579	41.5%	0.331
Sweeper	5.3%	28.6%	0.167	30.4%	0.407

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