MLB hitter props

Pete Alonso

vs Payton TolleProjected lineup1:35 PM ET

HR probability

12.1%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this player's HR probability.

Season HR%

6.0%

Park factor

3.2

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

Expected hits

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.4

Last 10 games

Average margin

-0.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.0	0.5DraftKings	+0.5	—	40% (4/10)· 2U streak
H+R+R	2.3	1.5DraftKings	+0.8	—	30% (3/10)· 2U streak
Total Bases	1.9	—	+0.0	—	10% (1/10)· 2U streak
Stolen Bases	0.0	—	+0.0	—	0% (0/10)· 10U streak

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this player's props.

Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

68%Line

2+ Hits

27.2%

3+ Hits

6.4%

4+ Hits

0.9%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this player's hits ladder.

Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

15.8%

Hard Hit%

57.9%

Exit Velo

93.4 mph

EV90

107.3 mph

Sweet Spot%

41.1%

Fly Ball%

29.2%

xSLG

0.807

ISO

0.250

25.4%

Contact%

75.8%

Bat Speed

73 mph

Swing Length

7.13 ft

Platoon HR%

5.7%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Payton Tolle

View Payton Tolle's report →

Avg

0.200

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Payton Tolle

View Payton Tolle's report →

HR% Allowed

3.5%

Barrel% Allowed

7.3%

Hard Hit% Allowed

33.2%

xSLG Allowed

0.483

Fly Ball% Allowed

26.8%

HR/FB

20.3%

HR/9 (est.)

1.35

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see matchup history.

Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

40% (4/10)· 2U streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 1

Sep 5

vs BOS

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 4

vs BOS

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 3

vs BOS

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 2

@ COL

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 1

@ COL

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this player's prop trend chart.

Analytics

Facing Today

View Payton Tolle's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Pete Alonso's K% vs Pitch
4-Seam Fastball	42.9%	25.3%	24.6%	96.1	15.8%
Cutter	22.3%	27.1%	19.5%	88.6	26.5%
Sinker	22.1%	15.2%	20%	94.9	17.2%
Curveball	9.5%	38.6%	30.8%	83.1	18.8%
Changeup	3.1%	11.8%	14.3%	88.7	15.9%

Green = a plus pitch for Payton Tolle (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Pete Alonso (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Pete Alonso handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
4-Seam Fastball	42.9%	44%	0.334	67%	0.422
Cutter	22.3%	23.2%	0.286	57.6%	0.278
Sinker	22.1%	28.1%	0.379	59.1%	0.403
Curveball	9.5%	29.4%	0.174	38.5%	0.217
Changeup	3.1%	33.3%	0.571	53.5%	0.351

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this player's arsenal matchup.