MLB hitter props

Carson Kelly

vs Tyler PhillipsProjected lineup1:40 PM ET

HR probability

12.5%

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Season HR%

4.0%

Park factor

2.3

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

0.9

Expected hits

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Hits

1.0

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	0.9	0.5DraftKings	+0.4	—	60% (6/10)· 1U streak
H+R+R	1.9	1.5DraftKings	+0.4	—	60% (6/10)· 1U streak
Total Bases	1.5	—	+0.0	—	40% (4/10)· 3U streak
Stolen Bases	0.0	—	+0.0	—	0% (0/10)· 10U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

63.5%Line

2+ Hits

23%

3+ Hits

4.9%

4+ Hits

0.8%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

4.8%

Hard Hit%

33.6%

Exit Velo

85.8 mph

EV90

102.1 mph

Sweet Spot%

31.5%

Fly Ball%

28.8%

xSLG

0.454

ISO

0.174

15.9%

Contact%

83.7%

Bat Speed

69.2 mph

Swing Length

6.77 ft

Platoon HR%

2.9%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Tyler Phillips

View Tyler Phillips's report →

No recorded plate appearances between these two players.

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Tyler Phillips

View Tyler Phillips's report →

HR% Allowed

4.2%

Barrel% Allowed

9.0%

Hard Hit% Allowed

47.8%

xSLG Allowed

0.566

Fly Ball% Allowed

29.9%

HR/FB

20.0%

HR/9 (est.)

1.64

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 0.9

Sep 4

@ MIA

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 3

vs MIL

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 1

vs MIL

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Aug 31

vs MIL

OVER

Hits

+2.5

Aug 29

vs CIN

OVER

Hits

+1.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Tyler Phillips's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Carson Kelly's K% vs Pitch
Sweeper	25.6%	28.2%	33.3%	84.1	24.4%
Sinker	24.4%	6.4%	9.6%	95.2	18.6%
Splitter	22.9%	33.3%	18.9%	86.7	33.3%
Curveball	16.5%	33%	15.3%	83.2	3.7%
4-Seam Fastball	8.5%	11.1%	10.5%	95.8	9.4%
Slider	2.1%	0%	0%	87.8	18.1%

Green = a plus pitch for Tyler Phillips (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Carson Kelly (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Carson Kelly handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
Sweeper	25.6%	42.5%	0.280	31.6%	0.226
Sinker	24.4%	51.5%	0.452	40.8%	0.347
Splitter	22.9%	47.5%	0.144	--	--
Curveball	16.5%	58.1%	0.307	16.7%	0.069
4-Seam Fastball	8.5%	26.3%	0.550	37.5%	0.358
Slider	2.1%	60%	0.400	31.8%	0.320

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