MLB hitter props

Teoscar Hernández

vs Andrew AlvarezProjected lineup10:10 PM ET

HR probability

12.4%

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Season HR%

2.4%

Park factor

3.1

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

0.9

Expected hits

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Hits

1.4

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	0.9	0.5DraftKings	+0.4	—	80% (8/10)· 6O streak
H+R+R	1.9	1.5DraftKings	+0.4	—	70% (7/10)· 4O streak
Total Bases	1.7	—	+0.0	—	60% (6/10)· 1U streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	—	+0.0	—	10% (1/10)· 3U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

63.9%Line

2+ Hits

24.6%

3+ Hits

4.9%

4+ Hits

0.7%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

9.6%

Hard Hit%

44.1%

Exit Velo

90.4 mph

EV90

106.4 mph

Sweet Spot%

31.6%

Fly Ball%

31.6%

xSLG

0.581

ISO

0.135

27.6%

Contact%

67.8%

Bat Speed

71.2 mph

Swing Length

7.75 ft

Platoon HR%

5.5%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Andrew Alvarez

View Andrew Alvarez's report →

No recorded plate appearances between these two players.

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Andrew Alvarez

View Andrew Alvarez's report →

HR% Allowed

1.0%

Barrel% Allowed

4.5%

Hard Hit% Allowed

39.4%

xSLG Allowed

0.481

Fly Ball% Allowed

20.7%

HR/FB

7.3%

HR/9 (est.)

0.39

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

80% (8/10)· 6O streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 0.9

Sep 5

vs WSH

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 4

vs WSH

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 3

vs STL

OVER

Hits

+1.5

Sep 2

vs STL

OVER

Hits

+2.5

Sep 1

vs STL

OVER

Hits

+0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Andrew Alvarez's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Teoscar Hernández's K% vs Pitch
Curveball	30.4%	31.1%	24.8%	82.7	15.6%
4-Seam Fastball	29.5%	10.1%	14.9%	92.2	17.9%
Slider	18.9%	32.1%	18.5%	84.2	30.6%
Sinker	15.7%	14.5%	30%	91.7	24.1%
Changeup	5.6%	30.8%	0%	86.3	18.2%

Green = a plus pitch for Andrew Alvarez (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Teoscar Hernández (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Teoscar Hernández handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
Curveball	30.4%	50.9%	0.232	33.3%	0.412
4-Seam Fastball	29.5%	33.3%	0.374	52.6%	0.302
Slider	18.9%	34.3%	0.337	46.2%	0.321
Sinker	15.7%	47.4%	0.361	54%	0.437
Changeup	5.6%	7.7%	0.208	32.1%	0.366

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