MLB hitter props

Xander Bogaerts

vs Gerrit ColeProjected lineup4:10 PM ET

HR probability

12.0%

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Season HR%

1.0%

Park factor

2.8

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

0.9

Expected hits

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.8

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	0.9	0.5DraftKings	+0.4	—	70% (7/10)· 3O streak
H+R+R	2.0	1.5DraftKings	+0.5	—	50% (5/10)· 1U streak
Total Bases	1.5	—	+0.0	—	20% (2/10)· 2U streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	—	+0.0	—	30% (3/10)· 1O streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

64.7%Line

2+ Hits

24%

3+ Hits

4.9%

4+ Hits

0.5%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

5.2%

Hard Hit%

45.3%

Exit Velo

90.2 mph

EV90

104.2 mph

Sweet Spot%

27.1%

Fly Ball%

22.9%

xSLG

0.444

ISO

0.083

17.3%

Contact%

77.4%

Bat Speed

70.6 mph

Swing Length

7.22 ft

Platoon HR%

1.5%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Gerrit Cole

View Gerrit Cole's report →

Avg

0.189

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Gerrit Cole

View Gerrit Cole's report →

HR% Allowed

2.8%

Barrel% Allowed

7.9%

Hard Hit% Allowed

45.8%

xSLG Allowed

0.528

Fly Ball% Allowed

26.2%

HR/FB

15.9%

HR/9 (est.)

1.08

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

70% (7/10)· 3O streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 0.9

Sep 5

vs NYY

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 4

vs NYY

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 2

@ CIN

OVER

Hits

+1.5

Sep 1

@ CIN

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Aug 31

@ CIN

OVER

Hits

+0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Gerrit Cole's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Xander Bogaerts's K% vs Pitch
4-Seam Fastball	49.7%	21.8%	24.2%	96.9	13.1%
Slider	19.9%	24.6%	20.8%	89.8	17.5%
Knuckle Curve	14.4%	19.5%	16.3%	83.6	16.7%
Changeup	13.4%	23%	20.4%	86.2	17.6%
Sinker	2.6%	6.7%	16.7%	96.2	19.1%

Green = a plus pitch for Gerrit Cole (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Xander Bogaerts (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Xander Bogaerts handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
4-Seam Fastball	49.7%	50%	0.273	48.4%	0.360
Slider	19.9%	50%	0.318	34.4%	0.268
Knuckle Curve	14.4%	48.6%	0.370	42.9%	0.200
Changeup	13.4%	28.6%	0.241	29.6%	0.165
Sinker	2.6%	57.1%	0.578	43.2%	0.333

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