MLB hitter props

Mike Yastrzemski

vs Aaron NolaProjected lineup1:10 PM ET

HR probability

11.8%

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Season HR%

3.6%

Park factor

3.3

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

Selected line

Model projection

0.8

Expected hits

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.4

Last 10 games

Average margin

-0.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	0.8	—	+0.0	—	30% (3/10)· 1U streak
H+R+R	1.4	—	+0.0	—	20% (2/10)· 1U streak
Total Bases	1.3	—	+0.0	—	10% (1/10)· 1U streak
Stolen Bases	0.0	—	+0.0	—	0% (0/10)· 10U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

59.1%

2+ Hits

21%

3+ Hits

4.1%

4+ Hits

0.5%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

9.4%

Hard Hit%

48.1%

Exit Velo

89.8 mph

EV90

103.4 mph

Sweet Spot%

35.8%

Fly Ball%

31.1%

xSLG

0.578

ISO

0.174

26.8%

Contact%

79.3%

Bat Speed

70.1 mph

Swing Length

7.47 ft

Platoon HR%

3.9%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Aaron Nola

View Aaron Nola's report →

Avg

0.333

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Aaron Nola

View Aaron Nola's report →

HR% Allowed

6.0%

Barrel% Allowed

9.5%

Hard Hit% Allowed

41.8%

xSLG Allowed

0.547

Fly Ball% Allowed

28.9%

HR/FB

31.3%

HR/9 (est.)

2.32

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

30% (3/10)· 1U streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 0.8

Sep 4

@ PHI

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 2

@ WSH

OVER

Hits

+1.5

Aug 31

vs SF

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Aug 30

vs COL

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Aug 29

vs COL

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Aaron Nola's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Mike Yastrzemski's K% vs Pitch
Knuckle Curve	32.1%	45.2%	32.4%	78.4	22.2%
4-Seam Fastball	22.9%	8.7%	6.8%	92.4	17.6%
Changeup	19.9%	28%	19.7%	85.6	12.5%
Sinker	17.5%	9%	17.5%	91.8	18.2%
Cutter	6.1%	22.2%	0%	86.4	34.6%
Slider	1.5%	26.7%	0%	83.2	23.2%

Green = a plus pitch for Aaron Nola (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Mike Yastrzemski (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Mike Yastrzemski handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
Knuckle Curve	32.1%	31%	0.281	--	0.360
4-Seam Fastball	22.9%	53.1%	0.363	51.9%	0.314
Changeup	19.9%	44.9%	0.285	50%	0.251
Sinker	17.5%	38.9%	0.487	45.2%	0.361
Cutter	6.1%	40%	0.517	41.2%	0.272
Slider	1.5%	57.1%	0.450	48%	0.241

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