MLB hitter props

Nolan Arenado

vs Peter LambertProjected lineup2:10 PM ET

HR probability

11.5%

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Season HR%

4.4%

Park factor

3.3

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

Expected hits

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.6

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.0	0.5DraftKings	+0.5	—	50% (5/10)· 1O streak
H+R+R	1.7	1.5DraftKings	+0.2	—	20% (2/10)· 5U streak
Total Bases	1.4	—	+0.0	—	10% (1/10)· 7U streak
Stolen Bases	0.0	—	+0.0	—	0% (0/10)· 10U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

65.7%Line

2+ Hits

25.7%

3+ Hits

6.2%

4+ Hits

0.8%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

5.4%

Hard Hit%

29.8%

Exit Velo

84.4 mph

EV90

101.5 mph

Sweet Spot%

27.8%

Fly Ball%

27.3%

xSLG

0.385

ISO

0.187

20.8%

Contact%

78.7%

Bat Speed

69 mph

Swing Length

8.29 ft

Platoon HR%

4.2%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Peter Lambert

View Peter Lambert's report →

No recorded plate appearances between these two players.

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Peter Lambert

View Peter Lambert's report →

HR% Allowed

2.8%

Barrel% Allowed

6.9%

Hard Hit% Allowed

32.0%

xSLG Allowed

0.471

Fly Ball% Allowed

33.8%

HR/FB

12.8%

HR/9 (est.)

1.09

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 1

Sep 5

@ HOU

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 4

@ HOU

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 2

vs PHI

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 1

vs PHI

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Aug 31

vs PHI

OVER

Hits

+0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Peter Lambert's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Nolan Arenado's K% vs Pitch
4-Seam Fastball	31.7%	24.3%	25.8%	93.7	13%
Changeup	24.9%	29.3%	18.7%	86.5	13.3%
Cutter	11%	12.8%	6.5%	91.3	9.7%
Sinker	9.3%	6.5%	13.3%	93.3	13.6%
Slider	8.6%	19.2%	12.5%	85.4	17.4%
Sweeper	7.2%	26.9%	17.1%	83.6	25%
Slurve	6.8%	14.8%	15.8%	80.2	—

Green = a plus pitch for Peter Lambert (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Nolan Arenado (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Nolan Arenado handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
4-Seam Fastball	31.7%	47.4%	0.341	41.4%	0.400
Changeup	24.9%	18.2%	0.266	25.7%	0.280
Cutter	11%	36.7%	0.365	18.2%	0.387
Sinker	9.3%	32.3%	0.296	40%	0.386
Slider	8.6%	28.6%	0.330	23.6%	0.310
Sweeper	7.2%	25%	0.350	9.8%	0.170
Slurve	6.8%	40%	0.153	--	--

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