MLB hitter props

Bryce Harper

vs Tyler MahleProjected lineup1:10 PM ET

HR probability

12.8%

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Season HR%

3.9%

Park factor

3.3

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

Expected hits

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Hits

1.6

Last 10 games

Average margin

+1.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.0	0.5DraftKings	+0.5	—	80% (8/10)· 1O streak
H+R+R	2.0	1.5DraftKings	+0.5	—	60% (6/10)· 1O streak
Total Bases	1.7	—	+0.0	—	60% (6/10)· 1O streak
Stolen Bases	0.0	—	+0.0	—	0% (0/10)· 10U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

68.1%Line

2+ Hits

28.1%

3+ Hits

6.7%

4+ Hits

1.1%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

8.5%

Hard Hit%

45.3%

Exit Velo

90.4 mph

EV90

106 mph

Sweet Spot%

40.3%

Fly Ball%

27.9%

xSLG

0.620

ISO

0.220

22.2%

Contact%

72.0%

Bat Speed

72.3 mph

Swing Length

7.19 ft

Platoon HR%

5.8%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Tyler Mahle

View Tyler Mahle's report →

Avg

0.333

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Tyler Mahle

View Tyler Mahle's report →

HR% Allowed

2.2%

Barrel% Allowed

5.9%

Hard Hit% Allowed

41.2%

xSLG Allowed

0.534

Fly Ball% Allowed

26.2%

HR/FB

12.2%

HR/9 (est.)

0.85

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

80% (8/10)· 1O streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 1

Sep 5

vs ATL

OVER

Hits

+1.5

Sep 4

vs ATL

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 2

@ ARI

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 1

@ ARI

OVER

Hits

+3.5

Aug 31

@ ARI

OVER

Hits

+1.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Tyler Mahle's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Bryce Harper's K% vs Pitch
4-Seam Fastball	48.7%	24.1%	22.6%	93.2	20.8%
Splitter	31.2%	25.4%	20.9%	86.7	36.7%
Cutter	16.9%	20.8%	21.4%	87.7	19.4%
Slider	3.3%	33.3%	15.4%	85.3	20.2%

Green = a plus pitch for Tyler Mahle (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Bryce Harper (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Bryce Harper handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
4-Seam Fastball	48.7%	41.3%	0.293	59.7%	0.484
Splitter	31.2%	38.5%	0.246	26.1%	0.208
Cutter	16.9%	45%	0.321	50%	0.384
Slider	3.3%	50%	0.425	52%	0.352

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