MLB hitter props

Freddie Freeman

vs Andrew AlvarezProjected lineup10:10 PM ET

HR probability

10.3%

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Season HR%

1.9%

Park factor

3.1

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

1.1

Expected hits

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Hits

1.0

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.1	0.5DraftKings	+0.6	—	60% (6/10)· 2U streak
H+R+R	1.7	1.5DraftKings	+0.2	—	50% (5/10)· 2U streak
Total Bases	1.3	—	+0.0	—	40% (4/10)· 2U streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	—	+0.0	—	0% (0/10)· 10U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

68.8%Line

2+ Hits

28.9%

3+ Hits

7.5%

4+ Hits

0.9%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

5.8%

Hard Hit%

37.6%

Exit Velo

88.4 mph

EV90

103.3 mph

Sweet Spot%

45.6%

Fly Ball%

26.1%

xSLG

0.585

ISO

0.126

16.2%

Contact%

79.1%

Bat Speed

68.6 mph

Swing Length

6.61 ft

Platoon HR%

2.8%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Andrew Alvarez

View Andrew Alvarez's report →

No recorded plate appearances between these two players.

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Andrew Alvarez

View Andrew Alvarez's report →

HR% Allowed

1.0%

Barrel% Allowed

4.5%

Hard Hit% Allowed

39.4%

xSLG Allowed

0.481

Fly Ball% Allowed

20.7%

HR/FB

7.3%

HR/9 (est.)

0.39

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

60% (6/10)· 2U streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 1.1

Sep 5

vs WSH

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 3

vs STL

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 2

vs STL

OVER

Hits

+1.5

Sep 1

vs STL

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Aug 30

@ DET

OVER

Hits

+1.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Andrew Alvarez's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Freddie Freeman's K% vs Pitch
Curveball	30.4%	31.1%	24.8%	82.7	6.8%
4-Seam Fastball	29.5%	10.1%	14.9%	92.2	14.8%
Slider	18.9%	32.1%	18.5%	84.2	16.5%
Sinker	15.7%	14.5%	30%	91.7	12.6%
Changeup	5.6%	30.8%	0%	86.3	7.7%

Green = a plus pitch for Andrew Alvarez (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Freddie Freeman (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Freddie Freeman handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
Curveball	30.4%	50.9%	0.232	41.7%	0.465
4-Seam Fastball	29.5%	33.3%	0.374	42.5%	0.407
Slider	18.9%	34.3%	0.337	42.9%	0.231
Sinker	15.7%	47.4%	0.361	42%	0.358
Changeup	5.6%	7.7%	0.208	41.5%	0.282

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