Model pick
Brewers
Win probability
53.8%
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Team Stats
Brewers
Record
88-55
Win%
.615
Games Back
--
Run Diff
+172
Last 10
6-4
Streak
L1
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
9th of 30
Reds
Record
68-74
Win%
.479
Games Back
19.5
Run Diff
-109
Last 10
6-4
Streak
W1
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
23rd of 30
Head-to-head · live from MLB Stats API
Team Stat Sheet
| Lineup Production | ||
| 5.0 | R/GRuns scored per game | 4.2 |
| 0.339 | OBPOn-base percentage | 0.308 |
| 0.739 | OPSOn-base + slugging | 0.706 |
| 0.256 | AVGBatting average | 0.229 |
| 132 | HRHome runs | 191 |
| 718 | RunsRuns scored | 593 |
| 1201 | KBatting strikeouts | 1352 |
| 588 | BBWalks drawn | 505 |
| Pitching Staff | ||
| 3.8 | RA/GRuns allowed per game | 4.9 |
| 3.51 | ERAEarned run average | 4.66 |
| 1.180 | WHIPWalks + hits per IP | 1.430 |
| 9.7 | K/9Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.2 |
| 3.2 | BB/9Walks per 9 IP | 4.1 |
| 7.4 | H/9Hits per 9 IP | 8.7 |
2026 season-to-date team stats, live from MLB Stats API.
Analytics
Model Signals
| Win ProbabilityToss-up · Mixed signals | 46.2% | |
Team strengthPythagorean win profile -0.217
| ||
Starting pitcherLast-five-start FIP +1.61
| ||
BullpenRolling 7-day WHIP -0.039
| ||
Hitting formAverage OPS edge · L3/L7/L15/season +0.059
| ||
1st-inning run prediction based on today's real lineups and starters
YRFI / NRFI
Model leans
NRFI 59.3%
40.7% YRFI · 59.3% NRFI
Why
Brewers: NRFI in 3 of last 5
Reds: NRFI in 4 of last 5
Kyle Harrison: no 1st-inning run in 3 of last 5 starts
Brady Singer: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 4 straight starts
A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough (65%+ for YRFI, 35%- for NRFI). No sportsbook line exists for this market yet, so this reflects the model's own confidence rather than an edge against posted odds.
Kyle Harrison
Brady Singer