Jackson Jobe
Gavin WilliamsModel pick
Guardians
Win probability
53.3%
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Team Stats
Tigers
Record
65-77
Win%
.458
Games Back
9.0
Run Diff
+51
Last 10
3-7
Streak
W1
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
12th of 30
Guardians
Record
72-71
Win%
.503
Games Back
2.5
Run Diff
-15
Last 10
5-5
Streak
L1
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
19th of 30
Head-to-head · live from MLB Stats API
Team Stat Sheet
TigersGuardians| Lineup Production | ||
| 4.4 | R/GRuns scored per game | 4.0 |
| 0.315 | OBPOn-base percentage | 0.314 |
| 0.712 | OPSOn-base + slugging | 0.685 |
| 0.239 | AVGBatting average | 0.236 |
| 160 | HRHome runs | 133 |
| 625 | RunsRuns scored | 577 |
| 1229 | KBatting strikeouts | 1146 |
| 491 | BBWalks drawn | 509 |
| Pitching Staff | ||
| 4.0 | RA/GRuns allowed per game | 4.1 |
| 3.69 | ERAEarned run average | 3.76 |
| 1.230 | WHIPWalks + hits per IP | 1.260 |
| 8.2 | K/9Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.5 |
| 3.2 | BB/9Walks per 9 IP | 3.3 |
| 7.8 | H/9Hits per 9 IP | 8.1 |
2026 season-to-date team stats, live from MLB Stats API.
Analytics
Model Signals
TigersGuardians| 46.7% | Win ProbabilityToss-up · Signals agree | 53.3% |
Team strengthPythagorean win profile -0.055
| ||
Starting pitcherLast-five-start FIP +0.77
| ||
BullpenRolling 7-day WHIP +0.193
| ||
Hitting formAverage OPS edge · L3/L7/L15/season +0.022
| ||
1st-inning run prediction based on today's real lineups and starters
YRFI / NRFI
Model leans
NRFI 65.7%
34.3% YRFI · 65.7% NRFI
Why
Tigers: NRFI in 4 straight - NRFI in 4 of last 5
Guardians: NRFI in 4 of last 5
Gavin Williams: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 5 straight starts
A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough (65%+ for YRFI, 35%- for NRFI). No sportsbook line exists for this market yet, so this reflects the model's own confidence rather than an edge against posted odds.