Kyle Leahy
Tanner GordonModel pick
Cardinals
Win probability
54.6%
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Team Stats
Cardinals
Record
71-72
Win%
.497
Games Back
17.0
Run Diff
-11
Last 10
5-5
Streak
L1
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
4th of 30
Rockies
Record
55-87
Win%
.387
Games Back
30.0
Run Diff
-138
Last 10
4-6
Streak
W1
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
26th of 30
Head-to-head · live from MLB Stats API
Team Stat Sheet
CardinalsRockies| Lineup Production | ||
| 4.5 | R/GRuns scored per game | 4.7 |
| 0.316 | OBPOn-base percentage | 0.324 |
| 0.702 | OPSOn-base + slugging | 0.740 |
| 0.243 | AVGBatting average | 0.254 |
| 153 | HRHome runs | 156 |
| 647 | RunsRuns scored | 671 |
| 1129 | KBatting strikeouts | 1230 |
| 453 | BBWalks drawn | 456 |
| Pitching Staff | ||
| 4.6 | RA/GRuns allowed per game | 5.7 |
| 4.29 | ERAEarned run average | 5.44 |
| 1.350 | WHIPWalks + hits per IP | 1.520 |
| 7.9 | K/9Strikeouts per 9 IP | 7.0 |
| 3.5 | BB/9Walks per 9 IP | 3.4 |
| 8.7 | H/9Hits per 9 IP | 10.3 |
2026 season-to-date team stats, live from MLB Stats API.
Analytics
Model Signals
CardinalsRockies| 54.6% | Win ProbabilityToss-up · Mixed signals | 45.4% |
Team strengthPythagorean win profile -0.084
| ||
Starting pitcherLast-five-start FIP -4.13
| ||
BullpenRolling 7-day WHIP +0.281
| ||
Hitting formAverage OPS edge · L3/L7/L15/season +0.015
| ||
1st-inning run prediction based on today's real lineups and starters
YRFI / NRFI
Model leans
NRFI 62.6%
37.4% YRFI · 62.6% NRFI
Why
Cardinals: NRFI in 2 of last 5
Rockies: NRFI in 2 of last 5
Kyle Leahy: no 1st-inning run in 4 of last 5 starts
Tanner Gordon: no 1st-inning run in 2 of last 4 starts
A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough (65%+ for YRFI, 35%- for NRFI). No sportsbook line exists for this market yet, so this reflects the model's own confidence rather than an edge against posted odds.