Eduardo Rodriguez
Peter LambertModel pick
Diamondbacks
Win probability
50.3%
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Team Stats
Diamondbacks
Record
75-68
Win%
.524
Games Back
10.5
Run Diff
-2
Last 10
5-5
Streak
W1
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
1st of 30
Astros
Record
73-70
Win%
.510
Games Back
--
Run Diff
-37
Last 10
7-3
Streak
L1
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
6th of 30
Head-to-head · live from MLB Stats API
Team Stat Sheet
DiamondbacksAstros| Lineup Production | ||
| 4.4 | R/GRuns scored per game | 4.5 |
| 0.314 | OBPOn-base percentage | 0.315 |
| 0.708 | OPSOn-base + slugging | 0.723 |
| 0.242 | AVGBatting average | 0.240 |
| 140 | HRHome runs | 186 |
| 633 | RunsRuns scored | 645 |
| 1045 | KBatting strikeouts | 1168 |
| 476 | BBWalks drawn | 472 |
| Pitching Staff | ||
| 4.4 | RA/GRuns allowed per game | 4.8 |
| 4.14 | ERAEarned run average | 4.52 |
| 1.280 | WHIPWalks + hits per IP | 1.350 |
| 6.9 | K/9Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.9 |
| 3.0 | BB/9Walks per 9 IP | 4.2 |
| 8.5 | H/9Hits per 9 IP | 8.0 |
2026 season-to-date team stats, live from MLB Stats API.
Analytics
Model Signals
DiamondbacksAstros| 50.3% | Win ProbabilityToss-up · Signals agree | 49.7% |
Team strengthPythagorean win profile -0.026
| ||
Starting pitcherLast-five-start FIP -1.85
| ||
BullpenRolling 7-day WHIP -0.122
| ||
Hitting formAverage OPS edge · L3/L7/L15/season +0.081
| ||
1st-inning run prediction based on today's real lineups and starters
YRFI / NRFI
Model leans
NRFI 60.0%
40.0% YRFI · 60.0% NRFI
Why
Diamondbacks: NRFI in 2 of last 5
Astros: NRFI in 2 of last 5
Eduardo Rodriguez: has allowed a 1st-inning run in 3 straight starts
Peter Lambert: no 1st-inning run in 3 of last 5 starts
A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough (65%+ for YRFI, 35%- for NRFI). No sportsbook line exists for this market yet, so this reflects the model's own confidence rather than an edge against posted odds.