Spencer Arrighetti
Randy DobnakModel pick
Royals
Win probability
54.2%
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Team Stats
Blue Jays
Record
72-71
Win%
.503
Games Back
13.5
Run Diff
-33
Last 10
8-2
Streak
W4
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
24th of 30
Royals
Record
63-80
Win%
.441
Games Back
11.5
Run Diff
-93
Last 10
4-6
Streak
L2
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
8th of 30
Head-to-head · live from MLB Stats API
Team Stat Sheet
Blue JaysRoyals| Lineup Production | ||
| 4.0 | R/GRuns scored per game | 4.3 |
| 0.309 | OBPOn-base percentage | 0.316 |
| 0.691 | OPSOn-base + slugging | 0.718 |
| 0.248 | AVGBatting average | 0.247 |
| 134 | HRHome runs | 149 |
| 579 | RunsRuns scored | 611 |
| 1029 | KBatting strikeouts | 1112 |
| 399 | BBWalks drawn | 448 |
| Pitching Staff | ||
| 4.3 | RA/GRuns allowed per game | 4.9 |
| 3.90 | ERAEarned run average | 4.72 |
| 1.300 | WHIPWalks + hits per IP | 1.400 |
| 8.8 | K/9Strikeouts per 9 IP | 7.4 |
| 3.7 | BB/9Walks per 9 IP | 3.7 |
| 8.0 | H/9Hits per 9 IP | 8.9 |
2026 season-to-date team stats, live from MLB Stats API.
Analytics
Model Signals
Blue JaysRoyals| 45.8% | Win ProbabilityToss-up · Mixed signals | 54.2% |
Team strengthPythagorean win profile -0.043
| ||
Starting pitcherLast-five-start FIP +2.99
| ||
BullpenRolling 7-day WHIP -0.101
| ||
Hitting formAverage OPS edge · L3/L7/L15/season -0.005
| ||
1st-inning run prediction based on today's real lineups and starters
YRFI / NRFI
Model leans
NRFI 61.8%
38.2% YRFI · 61.8% NRFI
Why
Blue Jays: YRFI in 4 straight - NRFI in 1 of last 5
Royals: NRFI in 3 straight - NRFI in 3 of last 5
Spencer Arrighetti: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 5 straight starts
A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough (65%+ for YRFI, 35%- for NRFI). No sportsbook line exists for this market yet, so this reflects the model's own confidence rather than an edge against posted odds.