Andrew Alvarez
Justin WrobleskiModel pick
Dodgers
Win probability
57.4%
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Team Stats
Nationals
Record
67-77
Win%
.465
Games Back
18.0
Run Diff
+11
Last 10
5-5
Streak
L3
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
29th of 30
Dodgers
Record
85-57
Win%
.599
Games Back
--
Run Diff
+150
Last 10
5-5
Streak
W3
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
3rd of 30
Head-to-head · live from MLB Stats API
Team Stat Sheet
NationalsDodgers| Lineup Production | ||
| 5.2 | R/GRuns scored per game | 4.9 |
| 0.325 | OBPOn-base percentage | 0.336 |
| 0.754 | OPSOn-base + slugging | 0.756 |
| 0.249 | AVGBatting average | 0.256 |
| 193 | HRHome runs | 173 |
| 743 | RunsRuns scored | 698 |
| 1202 | KBatting strikeouts | 1120 |
| 503 | BBWalks drawn | 536 |
| Pitching Staff | ||
| 5.1 | RA/GRuns allowed per game | 3.9 |
| 4.70 | ERAEarned run average | 3.70 |
| 1.390 | WHIPWalks + hits per IP | 1.170 |
| 7.9 | K/9Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.3 |
| 3.7 | BB/9Walks per 9 IP | 3.1 |
| 8.8 | H/9Hits per 9 IP | 7.4 |
2026 season-to-date team stats, live from MLB Stats API.
Analytics
Model Signals
NationalsDodgers| 42.6% | Win ProbabilityLean · Signals agree | 57.4% |
Team strengthPythagorean win profile +0.111
| ||
Starting pitcherLast-five-start FIP -3.71
| ||
BullpenRolling 7-day WHIP +0.327
| ||
Hitting formAverage OPS edge · L3/L7/L15/season +0.004
| ||
1st-inning run prediction based on today's real lineups and starters
YRFI / NRFI
Model leans
NRFI 60.5%
39.5% YRFI · 60.5% NRFI
Why
Nationals: YRFI in 3 straight - NRFI in 1 of last 5
Dodgers: NRFI in 1 of last 5
Andrew Alvarez: no 1st-inning run in 3 of last 5 starts
Justin Wrobleski: has allowed a 1st-inning run in 3 straight starts
A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough (65%+ for YRFI, 35%- for NRFI). No sportsbook line exists for this market yet, so this reflects the model's own confidence rather than an edge against posted odds.