Clay Holmes
Tyler PhillipsModel pick
Marlins
Win probability
51.0%
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Team Stats
Cubs
Record
81-62
Win%
.566
Games Back
7.0
Run Diff
+139
Last 10
5-5
Streak
W3
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
2nd of 30
Marlins
Record
71-72
Win%
.497
Games Back
13.5
Run Diff
+8
Last 10
4-6
Streak
L3
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
30th of 30
Head-to-head · live from MLB Stats API
Team Stat Sheet
CubsMarlins| Lineup Production | ||
| 5.3 | R/GRuns scored per game | 4.3 |
| 0.340 | OBPOn-base percentage | 0.325 |
| 0.772 | OPSOn-base + slugging | 0.723 |
| 0.252 | AVGBatting average | 0.247 |
| 200 | HRHome runs | 146 |
| 765 | RunsRuns scored | 621 |
| 1211 | KBatting strikeouts | 1174 |
| 604 | BBWalks drawn | 493 |
| Pitching Staff | ||
| 4.4 | RA/GRuns allowed per game | 4.3 |
| 4.17 | ERAEarned run average | 3.99 |
| 1.260 | WHIPWalks + hits per IP | 1.260 |
| 7.8 | K/9Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.3 |
| 3.0 | BB/9Walks per 9 IP | 3.5 |
| 8.3 | H/9Hits per 9 IP | 7.9 |
2026 season-to-date team stats, live from MLB Stats API.
Analytics
Model Signals
CubsMarlins| 49.0% | Win ProbabilityToss-up · Mixed signals | 51.0% |
Team strengthPythagorean win profile -0.092
| ||
Starting pitcherLast-five-start FIP -0.90
| ||
BullpenRolling 7-day WHIP -0.234
| ||
Hitting formAverage OPS edge · L3/L7/L15/season -0.131
| ||
1st-inning run prediction based on today's real lineups and starters
YRFI / NRFI
Model leans
NRFI 57.4%
42.6% YRFI · 57.4% NRFI
Why
Cubs: NRFI in 4 of last 5
Marlins: NRFI in 4 of last 5
Tyler Phillips: no 1st-inning run in 4 of last 5 starts
A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough (65%+ for YRFI, 35%- for NRFI). No sportsbook line exists for this market yet, so this reflects the model's own confidence rather than an edge against posted odds.