Walbert Ureña
Paul SkenesModel pick
Pirates
Win probability
56.4%
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Team Stats
Angels
Record
54-88
Win%
.380
Games Back
18.5
Run Diff
-76
Last 10
2-8
Streak
W1
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
18th of 30
Pirates
Record
70-73
Win%
.490
Games Back
18.0
Run Diff
+25
Last 10
6-4
Streak
L1
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
27th of 30
Head-to-head · live from MLB Stats API
Team Stat Sheet
AngelsPirates| Lineup Production | ||
| 4.1 | R/GRuns scored per game | 4.8 |
| 0.308 | OBPOn-base percentage | 0.331 |
| 0.678 | OPSOn-base + slugging | 0.733 |
| 0.234 | AVGBatting average | 0.252 |
| 136 | HRHome runs | 164 |
| 577 | RunsRuns scored | 693 |
| 1347 | KBatting strikeouts | 1358 |
| 435 | BBWalks drawn | 512 |
| Pitching Staff | ||
| 4.6 | RA/GRuns allowed per game | 4.7 |
| 4.23 | ERAEarned run average | 4.21 |
| 1.350 | WHIPWalks + hits per IP | 1.310 |
| 9.1 | K/9Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.3 |
| 4.1 | BB/9Walks per 9 IP | 3.7 |
| 8.0 | H/9Hits per 9 IP | 8.1 |
2026 season-to-date team stats, live from MLB Stats API.
Analytics
Model Signals
AngelsPirates| 43.6% | Win ProbabilityLean · Signals agree | 56.4% |
Team strengthPythagorean win profile +0.080
| ||
Starting pitcherLast-five-start FIP -0.26
| ||
BullpenRolling 7-day WHIP +0.564
| ||
Hitting formAverage OPS edge · L3/L7/L15/season +0.076
| ||
1st-inning run prediction based on today's real lineups and starters
YRFI / NRFI
Model leans
NRFI 65.1%
34.9% YRFI · 65.1% NRFI
Why
Angels: NRFI in 2 of last 5
Pirates: NRFI in 3 of last 5
Walbert Ureña: no 1st-inning run in 3 of last 5 starts
Paul Skenes: no 1st-inning run in 2 of last 5 starts
A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough (65%+ for YRFI, 35%- for NRFI). No sportsbook line exists for this market yet, so this reflects the model's own confidence rather than an edge against posted odds.