Gerrit Cole
Michael KingModel pick
Yankees
Win probability
54.9%
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Team Stats
Yankees
Record
81-61
Win%
.570
Games Back
4.0
Run Diff
+118
Last 10
6-4
Streak
W1
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
17th of 30
Padres
Record
74-68
Win%
.521
Games Back
11.0
Run Diff
+7
Last 10
3-7
Streak
L1
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
10th of 30
Head-to-head · live from MLB Stats API
Team Stat Sheet
YankeesPadres| Lineup Production | ||
| 4.5 | R/GRuns scored per game | 4.2 |
| 0.311 | OBPOn-base percentage | 0.314 |
| 0.718 | OPSOn-base + slugging | 0.699 |
| 0.234 | AVGBatting average | 0.236 |
| 193 | HRHome runs | 155 |
| 643 | RunsRuns scored | 598 |
| 1310 | KBatting strikeouts | 1157 |
| 511 | BBWalks drawn | 493 |
| Pitching Staff | ||
| 3.7 | RA/GRuns allowed per game | 4.2 |
| 3.22 | ERAEarned run average | 3.92 |
| 1.170 | WHIPWalks + hits per IP | 1.290 |
| 9.0 | K/9Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.3 |
| 3.0 | BB/9Walks per 9 IP | 3.5 |
| 7.5 | H/9Hits per 9 IP | 8.2 |
2026 season-to-date team stats, live from MLB Stats API.
Analytics
Model Signals
YankeesPadres| 54.9% | Win ProbabilityToss-up · Signals agree | 45.1% |
Team strengthPythagorean win profile -0.094
| ||
Starting pitcherLast-five-start FIP -1.73
| ||
BullpenRolling 7-day WHIP -0.072
| ||
Hitting formAverage OPS edge · L3/L7/L15/season -0.064
| ||
1st-inning run prediction based on today's real lineups and starters
YRFI / NRFI
Model leans
NRFI 61.8%
38.2% YRFI · 61.8% NRFI
Why
Yankees: YRFI in 4 straight - NRFI in 1 of last 5
Padres: YRFI in 3 straight - NRFI in 1 of last 5
Gerrit Cole: no 1st-inning run in 4 of last 5 starts
Michael King: no 1st-inning run in 4 of last 5 starts
A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough (65%+ for YRFI, 35%- for NRFI). No sportsbook line exists for this market yet, so this reflects the model's own confidence rather than an edge against posted odds.