Gage Jump
Bryan WooModel pick
Mariners
Win probability
57.0%
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Team Stats
Athletics
Record
57-86
Win%
.399
Games Back
16.0
Run Diff
-186
Last 10
5-5
Streak
W4
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
14th of 30
Mariners
Record
66-77
Win%
.462
Games Back
7.0
Run Diff
-73
Last 10
2-8
Streak
L3
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
16th of 30
Head-to-head · live from MLB Stats API
Team Stat Sheet
AthleticsMariners| Lineup Production | ||
| 4.4 | R/GRuns scored per game | 4.0 |
| 0.321 | OBPOn-base percentage | 0.311 |
| 0.728 | OPSOn-base + slugging | 0.686 |
| 0.248 | AVGBatting average | 0.229 |
| 174 | HRHome runs | 163 |
| 631 | RunsRuns scored | 567 |
| 1225 | KBatting strikeouts | 1246 |
| 471 | BBWalks drawn | 487 |
| Pitching Staff | ||
| 5.7 | RA/GRuns allowed per game | 4.5 |
| 5.42 | ERAEarned run average | 4.23 |
| 1.500 | WHIPWalks + hits per IP | 1.260 |
| 8.6 | K/9Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.6 |
| 4.0 | BB/9Walks per 9 IP | 2.7 |
| 9.4 | H/9Hits per 9 IP | 8.6 |
2026 season-to-date team stats, live from MLB Stats API.
Analytics
Model Signals
AthleticsMariners| 43.0% | Win ProbabilityLean · Mixed signals | 57.0% |
Team strengthPythagorean win profile +0.066
| ||
Starting pitcherLast-five-start FIP -0.24
| ||
BullpenRolling 7-day WHIP -0.230
| ||
Hitting formAverage OPS edge · L3/L7/L15/season -0.128
| ||
1st-inning run prediction based on today's real lineups and starters
YRFI / NRFI
Model leans
NRFI 61.7%
38.3% YRFI · 61.7% NRFI
Why
Athletics: NRFI in 3 of last 5
Mariners: NRFI in 5 straight - NRFI in 5 of last 5
Gage Jump: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 4 straight starts
Bryan Woo: no 1st-inning run in 2 of last 5 starts
A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough (65%+ for YRFI, 35%- for NRFI). No sportsbook line exists for this market yet, so this reflects the model's own confidence rather than an edge against posted odds.