Ian Seymour
MacKenzie GoreModel pick
Rays
Win probability
55.2%
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Team Stats
Rays
Record
85-57
Win%
.599
Games Back
--
Run Diff
+49
Last 10
7-3
Streak
W2
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
22nd of 30
Rangers
Record
70-73
Win%
.490
Games Back
3.0
Run Diff
-46
Last 10
4-6
Streak
L2
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
5th of 30
Head-to-head · live from MLB Stats API
Team Stat Sheet
RaysRangers| Lineup Production | ||
| 4.5 | R/GRuns scored per game | 4.1 |
| 0.328 | OBPOn-base percentage | 0.317 |
| 0.732 | OPSOn-base + slugging | 0.715 |
| 0.260 | AVGBatting average | 0.242 |
| 149 | HRHome runs | 162 |
| 641 | RunsRuns scored | 587 |
| 992 | KBatting strikeouts | 1207 |
| 452 | BBWalks drawn | 465 |
| Pitching Staff | ||
| 4.2 | RA/GRuns allowed per game | 4.4 |
| 3.80 | ERAEarned run average | 4.29 |
| 1.150 | WHIPWalks + hits per IP | 1.310 |
| 8.2 | K/9Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.7 |
| 2.5 | BB/9Walks per 9 IP | 3.1 |
| 7.8 | H/9Hits per 9 IP | 8.7 |
2026 season-to-date team stats, live from MLB Stats API.
Analytics
Model Signals
RaysRangers| 55.2% | Win ProbabilityLean · Mixed signals | 44.8% |
Team strengthPythagorean win profile -0.077
| ||
Starting pitcherLast-five-start FIP +0.19
| ||
BullpenRolling 7-day WHIP -0.153
| ||
Hitting formAverage OPS edge · L3/L7/L15/season +0.032
| ||
1st-inning run prediction based on today's real lineups and starters
YRFI / NRFI
Model leans
NRFI 64.9%
35.1% YRFI · 64.9% NRFI
Why
Rays: NRFI in 3 straight - NRFI in 4 of last 5
Rangers: NRFI in 1 of last 5
Ian Seymour: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 3 straight starts
MacKenzie Gore: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 3 straight starts
A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough (65%+ for YRFI, 35%- for NRFI). No sportsbook line exists for this market yet, so this reflects the model's own confidence rather than an edge against posted odds.