MLB pitcher strikeout
Parker Messick
Projection
5.8
Model strikeouts
Market line
5.5
DraftKings
Model edge
+0.3
Over 5.5
Recommendation
Over 5.5
DraftKings
Confidence
A
88/100
Pitcher K%
22.4%
Whiff%
23.9%
CSW%
28.3%
WHIP
1.07
Avg IP
6
Avg pitches
92.9
Last 5 avg Ks
5.6
Games logged
19
Matchup K%
N/A
Platoon K%
24.8%
Team chase
28%
Recent chase
22.8%
Recent contact
79.2%
Prop performance terminal
STRIKEOUT RESULTS
Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.
Market line
5.5
DraftKings
Model projection
5.8
Expected strikeouts
Hit rate
40%
4 of 10 overs
Average Ks
5.2
Selected starts
Average margin
-0.3
Vs selected line
Current streak
3
UNDER
Interactive line simulator
Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.
Active line
5.5
Over
4
Under
6
Push
0
Jul 10
Miami Marlins
Strikeouts
1
-4.5
Jul 4
Chicago White Sox
Strikeouts
3
-2.5
Jun 29
Texas Rangers
Strikeouts
5
-0.5
Jun 23
Chicago White Sox
Strikeouts
10
+4.5
Jun 18
Milwaukee Brewers
Strikeouts
9
+3.5
Analytics
Sportsbook Lines
| Book | Line | Over odds | Under odds | Over edge | Under edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 5.5 | -111 | -115 | +0.3 | -0.3 | Best Over |
| Caesars | 5.5 | -103 | -- | +0.3 | -0.3 | — |
| Bovada | 5.5 | +100 | -120 | +0.3 | -0.3 | — |
| FanDuel | 5.5 | -102 | -125 | +0.3 | -0.3 | — |
| ESPN BET | 5.5 | -110 | -125 | +0.3 | -0.3 | — |
| BetMGM | 5.5 | -115 | -115 | +0.3 | -0.3 | — |
Analytics
Batter vs. Pitcher History
| Batter | PA | K | K% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Martin | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
| Byron Buxton | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| Luke Keaschall | 6 | 0 | 0% |
| Royce Lewis | 4 | 1 | 25% |
| Ryan Jeffers | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| Josh Bell | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| Victor Caratini | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| Kody Clemens | 2 | 0 | 0% |
Analytics
Lineup Chase Rate
| Batter | Chase rate | Recent chase | Recent K% | Recent contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Martin | 19.9% | 8.6% | 23.5% | 88% |
| Byron Buxton | 35.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ryan Jeffers | 22.6% | 17% | 15% | 82.1% |
| Josh Bell | 32.2% | 25.6% | 21.6% | 82.4% |
| Royce Lewis | 33.5% | 31.6% | 18.8% | 73.6% |
| Victor Caratini | 25.9% | 27.3% | 10% | 79.4% |
| Kody Clemens | 33% | 36.7% | 35.1% | 69.5% |
| Luke Keaschall | 22% | 11.5% | 17.2% | 82.1% |
| Ryan Kreidler | 28.2% | 24.4% | 27.3% | 76.2% |
Analytics
Projection History
| Date | Opponent | Projected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Miami Marlins | 5.5 | 1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Minnesota Twins | 5.8 | — |
Analytics
Why This Projection?
Analytics
Last 10 Starts
| Date | Opponent | H/A | IP | Ks | Pitches | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Miami Marlins | Away | 6 | 1 | 91 | 1.07 |
| 2026-07-04 | Chicago White Sox | Home | 5 | 3 | 100 | 1.08 |
| 2026-06-29 | Texas Rangers | Home | 6.2 | 5 | 83 | 1.06 |
| 2026-06-23 | Chicago White Sox | Away | 7.2 | 10 | 95 | 1.05 |
| 2026-06-18 | Milwaukee Brewers | Away | 6 | 9 | 96 | 1.1 |
| 2026-06-10 | New York Yankees | Home | 5.2 | 4 | 100 | 1.09 |
| 2026-06-05 | Texas Rangers | Away | 5.2 | 4 | 85 | 1.07 |
| 2026-05-30 | Boston Red Sox | Home | 5 | 4 | 93 | 1.07 |
| 2026-05-24 | Philadelphia Phillies | Away | 5.2 | 6 | 91 | 1.04 |
| 2026-05-19 | Detroit Tigers | Away | 5 | 6 | 81 | 1.02 |