MLB pitcher strikeout
Tyler Mahle
Projection
3.5
Model strikeouts
Market line
4.5
DraftKings
Model edge
+1.0
Under 4.5
Recommendation
Under 4.5
DraftKings
Confidence
B+
70/100
Pitcher K%
17.6%
Whiff%
22.8%
CSW%
23.7%
WHIP
1.5
Avg IP
5.2
Avg pitches
85.1
Last 5 avg Ks
3.8
Games logged
15
Matchup K%
14.8%
Platoon K%
19.5%
Team chase
32%
Recent chase
36%
Recent contact
82.5%
Prop performance terminal
STRIKEOUT RESULTS
Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.
Market line
4.5
DraftKings
Model projection
3.5
Expected strikeouts
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10 overs
Average Ks
4.7
Selected starts
Average margin
+0.2
Vs selected line
Current streak
1
UNDER
Interactive line simulator
Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.
Active line
4.5
Over
5
Under
5
Push
0
Jul 11
Colorado Rockies
Strikeouts
4
-0.5
Jul 5
Colorado Rockies
Strikeouts
5
+0.5
Jun 29
Arizona Diamondbacks
Strikeouts
3
-1.5
Jun 24
Athletics
Strikeouts
4
-0.5
May 26
Arizona Diamondbacks
Strikeouts
3
-1.5
Analytics
Sportsbook Lines
| Book | Line | Over odds | Under odds | Over edge | Under edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 4.5 | +127 | -163 | -1.0 | +1.0 | Best Under |
| FanDuel | 4.5 | +132 | -170 | -1.0 | +1.0 | — |
| Caesars | 4.5 | +128 | -- | -1.0 | +1.0 | — |
| BetMGM | 4.5 | +130 | -175 | -1.0 | +1.0 | — |
| Bovada | 4.5 | +130 | -170 | -1.0 | +1.0 | — |
| ESPN BET | 4.5 | +125 | -175 | -1.0 | +1.0 | — |
Analytics
Batter vs. Pitcher History
| Batter | PA | K | K% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 15 | 1 | 6.7% |
| Lane Thomas | 12 | 3 | 25% |
| Salvador Perez | 6 | 0 | 0% |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| Michael Massey | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
Analytics
Lineup Chase Rate
| Batter | Chase rate | Recent chase | Recent K% | Recent contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Jensen | 25.4% | 25.6% | 35.9% | 78.8% |
| Lane Thomas | 19.6% | 17.2% | 24.3% | 82.5% |
| Jac Caglianone | 38% | 44.2% | 13.9% | 83.3% |
| Salvador Perez | 45.7% | 48% | 22.2% | 69.6% |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 30.2% | 37.9% | 14.3% | 83.7% |
| Starling Marte | 34.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Michael Massey | 38.2% | 36.4% | 7.1% | 88% |
| Nick Loftin | 24.1% | 42.9% | 13.3% | 83.3% |
| Tyler Tolbert | 31.6% | N/A | N/A | 90.5% |
Analytics
Projection History
| Date | Opponent | Projected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Colorado Rockies | 5.2 | 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Kansas City Royals | 3.5 | — |
Analytics
Why This Projection?
Analytics
Last 10 Starts
| Date | Opponent | H/A | IP | Ks | Pitches | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Colorado Rockies | Home | 7 | 4 | 104 | 1.46 |
| 2026-07-05 | Colorado Rockies | Away | 4.1 | 5 | 75 | 1.49 |
| 2026-06-29 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Away | 4.1 | 3 | 85 | 1.47 |
| 2026-06-24 | Athletics | Home | 5.2 | 4 | 70 | 1.46 |
| 2026-05-26 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Home | 5 | 3 | 81 | 1.54 |
| 2026-05-20 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Away | 5 | 6 | 79 | 1.57 |
| 2026-05-15 | Athletics | Away | 5 | 6 | 90 | 1.56 |
| 2026-05-10 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Home | 5.2 | 8 | 97 | 1.49 |
| 2026-05-03 | Tampa Bay Rays | Away | 5.1 | 5 | 92 | 1.53 |
| 2026-04-28 | Philadelphia Phillies | Away | 5 | 3 | 82 | 1.63 |