MLB pitcher strikeout
Michael Lorenzen
Projection
2.7
Model strikeouts
Market line
3.5
DraftKings
Model edge
+0.8
Under 3.5
Recommendation
Under 3.5
DraftKings
Confidence
B+
70/100
Pitcher K%
10.7%
Whiff%
15.1%
CSW%
23.7%
WHIP
1.84
Avg IP
5
Avg pitches
88.6
Last 5 avg Ks
2.6
Games logged
21
Matchup K%
N/A
Platoon K%
16.1%
Team chase
31.3%
Recent chase
29.5%
Recent contact
78.6%
Prop performance terminal
STRIKEOUT RESULTS
Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.
Market line
3.5
DraftKings
Model projection
2.7
Expected strikeouts
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10 overs
Average Ks
3.7
Selected starts
Average margin
+0.2
Vs selected line
Current streak
1
UNDER
Interactive line simulator
Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.
Active line
3.5
Over
6
Under
4
Push
0
Jul 12
San Francisco Giants
Strikeouts
1
-2.5
Jul 7
Los Angeles Dodgers
Strikeouts
5
+1.5
Jul 2
Miami Marlins
Strikeouts
1
-2.5
Jun 27
Minnesota Twins
Strikeouts
1
-2.5
Jun 21
Pittsburgh Pirates
Strikeouts
5
+1.5
Analytics
Sportsbook Lines
| Book | Line | Over odds | Under odds | Over edge | Under edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 3.5 | -115 | -111 | -0.8 | +0.8 | Best Under |
| Caesars | 3.5 | -107 | -- | -0.8 | +0.8 | — |
| BetMGM | 3.5 | -110 | -120 | -0.8 | +0.8 | — |
| ESPN BET | 3.5 | -115 | -120 | -0.8 | +0.8 | — |
| Bovada | 3.5 | +100 | -130 | -0.8 | +0.8 | — |
| FanDuel | 3.5 | +102 | -130 | -0.8 | +0.8 | — |
Analytics
Batter vs. Pitcher History
| Batter | PA | K | K% |
|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
| Keibert Ruiz | 7 | 0 | 0% |
| Curtis Mead | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| James Wood | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| Luis García Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| José Tena | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Nasim Nuñez | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Jacob Young | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Analytics
Lineup Chase Rate
| Batter | Chase rate | Recent chase | Recent K% | Recent contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | 22.3% | 23.2% | 33.3% | 65.1% |
| Luis García Jr. | 40.5% | 31.8% | 23.1% | 81.6% |
| José Tena | 30.4% | 33.3% | N/A | 81.8% |
| CJ Abrams | 36.5% | 31% | 25% | 80.6% |
| Curtis Mead | 25% | 24% | 18.2% | 83.9% |
| Daylen Lile | 37.9% | 38.6% | 25.8% | 72.5% |
| Keibert Ruiz | 38.7% | 40% | 6.7% | 92.9% |
| Nasim Nuñez | 24.1% | 22.4% | 8.7% | 86% |
| Jacob Young | 26.5% | 21.1% | 0% | 63% |
Analytics
Projection History
| Date | Opponent | Projected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 5 |
| 2026-07-12 | San Francisco Giants | 2.7 | 1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Washington Nationals | 2.7 | — |
Analytics
Why This Projection?
Analytics
Last 10 Starts
| Date | Opponent | H/A | IP | Ks | Pitches | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | San Francisco Giants | Away | 5 | 1 | 79 | 1.77 |
| 2026-07-07 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Away | 6 | 5 | 95 | 1.78 |
| 2026-07-02 | Miami Marlins | Home | 4.1 | 1 | 95 | 1.8 |
| 2026-06-27 | Minnesota Twins | Away | 5.2 | 1 | 92 | 1.79 |
| 2026-06-21 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Home | 5.1 | 5 | 90 | 1.83 |
| 2026-06-15 | Chicago Cubs | Away | 5 | 5 | 89 | 1.85 |
| 2026-06-10 | Chicago Cubs | Home | 5 | 7 | 84 | 1.9 |
| 2026-06-03 | Los Angeles Angels | Away | 3.1 | 5 | 85 | 1.99 |
| 2026-05-29 | San Francisco Giants | Home | 3.2 | 2 | 70 | 1.9 |
| 2026-05-23 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Away | 5 | 5 | 94 | 1.9 |